tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761538946854485154.post1472963049894998820..comments2024-03-11T03:02:29.875-06:00Comments on Simple Massing Priest: Two questions - and it's too soon for answersMalcolm+http://www.blogger.com/profile/08469936715413110334noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761538946854485154.post-10895621271506686572013-04-20T18:24:07.658-06:002013-04-20T18:24:07.658-06:00The old maxim of 15 minutes as an eternity in poli...The old maxim of 15 minutes as an eternity in politics did not arise from nought.<br />When you consider 30 months, absolutely anything can happen.<br />This reading too much into every poll that comes out seems to be a reflex canadians developed during the 8 year period when we had 4 elections. This time nothing happens until 2015.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Neal Fordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09129925620663849802noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761538946854485154.post-71455083952562711422013-04-19T02:03:04.437-06:002013-04-19T02:03:04.437-06:00"If neither party can effectively establish i..."If neither party can effectively establish itself in that role, the Conservatives are destined to a whomping majority in 2015, Quebec will largely drift back to the Bloc and any other prognostication is a complete mug's game."<br /><br />I'm not at all convinced even of this bit. Last election, the Conservatives racked up numbers somewhat above their typical polling since; they got over 39% in the election, while they're more often around 35% and have often been down past 33%. If the Conservatives continue to suffer from scandal and the perceptions of arrogance etc. that both fit them and tend to dog governments that have been in place for a while, the other two parties could split the vote and yet the Conservatives could still fail to even get close to a majority.<br /><br />I can readily envision a scenario like this: In Quebec, the NDP hang onto most of their seats due to a natural ideological fit with the Quebecois electorate and to Quebecois remembering they didn't much like Pierre in the first place. Meanwhile, Justin is a fairly effective Liberal leader and recovers some vote elsewhere. But the Conservatives fail to capitalize because they are running out of steam and their sins are catching up with them. The end result, a nearly even three-way split.Purple library guyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01930984683714519212noreply@blogger.com