The Cullen Plan - and why it won't work

For those following the federal NDP leadership race, here is an analysis of the Cullen plan for electoral cooperation, extrapolated to the 2011 general election.

There were 53 constituencies in 2011 where the combined New Democrat, Liberal and Green vote exceeded the vote of the Conservative victor.  With 166 seats, it would take the loss of 12 seats for the Conservatives to lose their majority.  It would take a gain of 13 seats for the three national opposition parties to form a majority coalition with the support of the Bloc Quebecois.  It would require a gain of 17 seats for a Liberal – Conservative – Green coalition to have a majority.  It should be noted that 27 of those seats were Conservative gains from the Liberals (25) or New Democrats (2) and therefore would not have been a part of the electoral arrangement under the Cullen proposal.  Those seats are shaded grey.

Column 2 sets out the margin between the Conservative victor and the nearest notional coalition party.

Column 3 sets out the number of votes gained by the other two notional coalition parties.

Column 4 sets out the net retention percentage the leading coalition party would need to retain from the other two parties’ votes.  This is a net retention.  Since an unknown percentage of the other coalition parties’ supporters would certainly choose to vote Conservative absent a candidate of their own party, the required number of votes would be the net retention figure plus the number of votes which went to the Conservatives.

Example:

In London West, the Conservative candidate defeated the Liberal candidate by a margin of 11,023 votes.  The New Democrat and Green candidates combined received 17,812 votes.  In order to make up the margin, the Liberal would have had to hold 61.9% of New Democrat and Green votes to make up the 11,023 deficit. 

However, for each New Democrat or Green voter who voted Conservative, the Liberal would have to retain an additional vote.  If 20% of New Democrat and Green voters (3,562) chose to vote Conservative instead of Liberal, the Liberal would now need to retain 14,585 votes, or 83.4% of the combined New Democrat and Green vote. 

That some New Democrats and Greens would choose to vote Conservative in this scenario is inevitable.  The prospect of 20% of New Democrats and Greens choosing to vote Conservative rather than Liberal is entirely credible based on both pre-election polling on second preferences and previous Canada Election Studies.

In addition, some number of New Democrat and Green voters would also choose to stay home, to spoil their ballot or to vote for a fringe party candidate.  In this case, assuming a 20% leakage to the Conservatives, a mere 17% of New Democrat and Green voters choosing one of these options would render it impossible for the Liberal candidate to have taken the seat.

In the chart I also note the constituencies with high profile “other” candidates who would likely be able to take some significant share of the Liberal/Green, New Democrat/Green vote.  I also highlight those Conservative gains which would not have been part of the arrangement under the Cullen proposal.  And I note one example of a seat where the social views of the Liberal candidate would be anathema to the vast majority of New Democrats.

While noting the many artificialities of this calculation, it is worth noting that the Cullen Plan as proposed, extrapolated to the results of the last election, does not produce a stable New Democrat – Liberal – Green coalition until a net voter retention of 77.6%, a percentage so high is is difficult, if not impossible, to achieve.

	CONSTITUENCY	MARGIN	OTHERS	NET %	COMMENTS
1	Nippissing – Temiskaming	18	11299	0.2%
2	Etobicoke Centre	26	9112	0.3%
3	Yukon	132	5345	2.5%
4	Bramalea – Gore Malton	539	18150	3.2%
5	Labrador	79	2359	3.4%
6	Mississauga East – Cooksville	676	9868	6.9%
7	Don Valley West	611	7983	7.7%
8	London North Centre	1665	15173	7.7%
9	Winnipeg South Centre	722	9328	7.8%
10	Don Valley East	870	10992	8.0%
11	Willowdale	932	9777	9.6%
12	Elmwood – Transcona	300	2677	11.3%
13	Pickering – Scarborough East	1207	10683	11.3%	antiChoice antiGay Lib
14	Scarborough Centre	1470	12441	11.9%
Coalition Minority with Bloc Quebecois support if Cullen Plan implemented in all constituencies
15	Moncton – Riverview – Dieppe	2161	16069	13.5%
16	Kitchener – Waterloo	2144	13764	15.6%
17	Sault Ste Marie	1861	9288	20.1%
18	Lobitiniere – Chute de la Chaudiere	777	3802	20.5%	BQ Candidate
Coalition Majority if Cullen Plan implemented in all constituencies
19	Etobicoke Lakeshore	2869	13205	21.8%
20	Madawaska – Restigouche	1915	7852	24.4%
21	Palliser	766	2792	27.5%
22	Vancouver Island North	1827	6057	30.2%
23	Ajax – Pickering	3228	9831	32.9%
24	South Shore – St. Margaret	2915	8616	33.9%
25	Mississauga Streetsville	3453	9636	35.9%
26	Ottawa Orleans	3935	10925	36.1%
27	Vancouver South	3900	9703	40.1%
28	Saskatoon – Rosetown – Biggar	538	1323	40.7%
29	Richmond Hill	4407	10265	43.0%
30	Kitchener Centre	5527	12714	43.5%
31	Denesthené – Missinnippi – Churchill River	794	1704	46.6%
32	Mississauga Brampton	5053	10509	48.1%
33	Brampton West	6192	12449	49.8%
34	Ottawa West Nepean	7436	12407	56.0%
35	Nanaimo – Alberni	5304	9466	56.1%
36	Eglington Lawrence	4062	7147	56.9%
37	Mississauga South	4598	7886	58.4%
38	London West	11023	17812	61.9%
Coalition Minority with Bloc support if Cullen Plan implemented as proposed
39	West Nova	4572	7118	64.3%
40	Mississauga – Erindale	8252	12621	65.4%
41	West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country	13786	18559	74.3%
42	Essex	6789	8755	77.6%
Coalition Majority if Cullen Plan implemented as proposed
43	Fleetwood – Port Kells	7417	9517	80.0%
44	Kenora	4712	6017	78.4%
45	York Centre	6377	7635	83.6%
46	Brampton – Springdale	10397	11948	87.1%
47	North Vancouver	11331	12621	89.8%
48	Glengarry – Prescott – Russell	10469	11657	89.9%
49	Fredericton	10947	12126	90.3%
50	Brant	11694	12638	92.6%
51	Nunavut	1670	1785	93.6%
52	Edmonton Centre	11145	11713	95.2%
53	Peterborough	14670	14769	99.4%